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Self-driving cars are becoming more prominent each year, with automakers, tech firms, and cities all investing heavily in their development. As these vehicles are developed and introduced, automated vehicle users, along with the overall society, will experience benefits. These economic and social benefits include safety, productivity, reduced congestion, lower transportation and accident-related costs, a better environment, greater access to mobility and services, and a boost to the economy. Despite these benefits, it is also important to consider the possible consequences of self-driving cars, such as unemployment and business loss for industries that rely on non-automated vehicles.
Benefits
Most importantly, this technology will help to improve safety. Most vehicle crashes are caused by human error, and the use of automation will negate this risk, therefore reducing accidents and saving lives. Specifically, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce estimated that if autonomous vehicles made up 25% of the U.S. motor vehicle fleet, they could prevent 1,442,000 accidents and 12,000 fatalities, which also results in $94 billion in economic savings.
Secondly, with clearer communication abilities and reduced human error which prevent crashes, self-driving vehicles will reduce road congestion. For example, researchers at the University of Texas predicted that if placed on a highway, a tightly spaced group of automated vehicles could reduce congestion-related delays by around 60%.
Third, automated vehicles give passengers more free time. Rather than focusing on driving, users will have the ability to spend their ride on something else, such as work, relaxation, or reading. The numerous hours of optimized productive time that automated vehicles will save users could equate to adding billions of dollars in value each year. According to a McKinsey report, EU citizens spend around 40 minutes a day in a vehicle. If just half of this time were spent working rather than driving, about 1.1 billion dollars of value would be created each day.
Self-driving will also bring environmental benefits. According to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, with automation, smoother driving and fewer idle cars will result in lower fuel use and emissions, improving air quality and reducing CO2 emissions up to 8.2% under the same 25% U.S. motor vehicle fleet assumption. They also make transportation more accessible for people with disabilities, seniors, and others who have difficulty driving on their own.
Additionally, self-driving vehicles have the potential to boost our broader economy by creating new markets and industries. Jobs will shift away from traditional driving roles, such as ride share and public transportation drivers, and into fields like software development, data analysis, and mobility services. In fact, U.S.-focused research indicates that even after accounting for jobs lost in traditional driving roles, automated vehicles could net create 2.4 million new jobs and increase GDP by $214 billion.
Drawbacks
While there are certainly a number of economic benefits when it comes to self-driving cars, there are also a lot of drawbacks. One of these is the potential for a significant wave of job loss. As of 2015, approximately 15.5 million people in the U.S. worked in jobs that revolved around driving, CNBC reported. This puts a large portion of the population at risk of unemployment with an increase in self-driving cars. One particularly vulnerable group at risk for job loss is truck drivers. Because they drive primarily on highways, it involves much simpler technology/navigation. As technology advances, it will not only be truck drivers at risk but also a wide range of other individuals whose jobs involve driving. In the next 30 years, the Upjohn Institute for Employment Research predicts that self-driving cars will eliminate around 1.3 to 2.3 million jobs. In terms of what the impact of this job loss would be, CleanTechnica estimates that every laid-off employee would lose an average of $80,000 (lifetime income). Further, these disparities would not be evenly distributed across the U.S. The demographics of employees that rely on driving are largely men and people of color from certain states like Indiana, Idaho, North Dakota, and Iowa. So, certain populations and certain communities would suffer serious economic consequences, while others might benefit, further exacerbating economic disparities. Overall, job loss and the economic concerns that come with mass unemployment serve as a strong danger and drawback to self-driving cars.
A second potential concern when looking at self-driving cars is the risk of negative consequences for other industries. For instance, certain more traditional auto companies, like Ford, have been lagging on technological advances, and therefore might suffer serious economic consequences. Another industry that will be greatly affected by the switch to self-driving cars is the auto insurance industry. As society shifts to the use of self-driving cars, the risk of accidents will be significantly reduced, which very likely will put many auto insurance companies out of business. Along those lines, with decreased accidents, there will also be a decreased need for parts and repairs, effectively minimizing demand for auto repair companies.
So, despite the benefits of self-driving cars, there is also considerable economic risk. Many individuals and industries rely on driving for their jobs and for business. So, if there is a growing shift towards using self-driving cars, a lot of these industries will lose business, and a lot of individuals will lose their jobs, possibly having extremely damaging economic consequences.
Thoughts Moving Forward
In looking towards the future, it will be important to weigh the impacts of both the costs and benefits of self-driving cars. In terms of benefits, self-driving cars offer enormous potential to improve safety, reduce congestion, cut emissions, and create new opportunities for economic growth. However, with that said, self-driving cars might also disrupt millions of jobs, causing large-scale unemployment and economic disruptions. Further, the many industries that rely on non-automated cars, like auto insurance and auto repair companies, will be particularly economically vulnerable during this shift. So, as we make this transition, it will be important to take action to balance the benefits of safety and efficiency with policies and strategies that address unemployment, industry disruption, and inequality. Understanding the benefits and drawbacks of self-driving cars is critical to having a net positive transition towards self-driving cars and protecting those in vulnerable positions during this shift.
